Rate Cuts Coming – But Not Imminent
April 26, 2024 The slower-than-expected 1.6% GDP growth rate in the first quarter and the faster-than-expected increase in the core personal consumption expenditures deflator of 3.7% was generally regarded as the worst of both worlds. That is not quite true. ...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
April 26, 2024 The economy seems to growing steadily at a 2.0-2.5% pace. The economy continues to create jobs and wages keep growing and consumers continue to spend As a result, we expect GDP growth of about 2.0-2.5% in each of the next three quarters of 2024....
Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures — Monthly
April 26, 2024 Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% in both February and March. The consumer is still willing to spend despite worries about inflation and the pace of Fed tightening. What we are really interested in is "real" or inflation-adjusted...
Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator
April 26, 2024 There are many different measures of inflation, but the one that the Federal Reserve considers to be most important is the personal consumption expenditures deflator, in particular the PCE deflator excluding the volatile food and energy components....
Pending Home Sales
April 25, 2024 Pending home sales rose 3.4% in March to 78.2 after rising 1.6% in February. The National Association of Realtors chief economist, Lawrence Yun said, "March's Pending Home Sales Index – at 78.2 – marks the best performance in a year, but it still...
GDP
April 25, 2024 . The preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP growth was 1.6% compared to a 2.5% growth rate that had been expected in the first quarter and compared to fourth quarter growth of 3.4%... While the perception is that the economy is slowing down, be...
Final Sales
April 25, 2024 When the economy is slowing down, firms will accumulate unwanted inventories. Those inventories still show up in GDP, but they are unsold. Hence, GDP will be biased upwards. Similarly, in good times businesses will reduce inventory levels to...
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
April 25, 2024 It is important to remember that final sales is a measure of how many domestically produced goods are sold each quarter. But we also sell goods overseas -- our exports. And we purchase goods from other countries -- our imports. In the never-ending...
Gross Domestic Purchases Deflator
April 25, 2024 There are many different deflators that are available. This one is for gross domestic purchases which measures prices paid by U.S. residents. It is the one measure of inflation that the Commerce Department talks about when it releases the GDP...
Initial Unemployment Claims
April 25, 2024 Initial unemployment claims fell 5 thousand in the week ending April 20 to 207,000 after being unchanged in the previous week. The economy is strong enough and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. No need to start laying off people....
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