Sunday, 25 of June of 2017

Economics. Explained.  

Homebuilder Confidence

June 15, 2017

Homebuilder confidence declined 2 points in June to 67 after having risen 1 point in May.  Confidence is bouncing around from month to month at a very high level.    Clearly, builders believe that the housing market will perform well in 2017.

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for the home builders association said, “As the housing market strengthens and more buyers enter the market, builders continue to express their frustration over an ongoing shortage of skilled labor and build-able lots that is impeding stronger growth in the single-family sector,”

“Builder confidence levels have remained consistently sound this year, reflecting the ongoing gradual recovery of the housing market”  said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald.

Traffic through the model homes edged lower by 2 points in June to 49.  The March reading of 53 was the highest reading thus far in the business cycle.

Not surprisingly there is a close correlation between builder confidence and housing starts.  Right now starts are lagging considerably because builders are having some difficulty finding financing, building materials, an adequate supply of finished lots, and skilled labor.  Starts  currently are at a 1.3 million pace.  They should continue to climb gradually in the months ahead and reach 1.4 million by the end of 2017.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC


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