Wednesday, 22 of November of 2017

Economics. Explained.  

Mortgage Loans

July 25, 2017

Real estate loans rose at a 2.3% rate in June after having climbed by 4.2% in May (the light blue bars).   Over the course of the past year mortgage lending has risen 4.6% (the dark blue line).

Total loan growth has been slowing for all types of bank lending — real estate, consumer, and commercial and industrial loans.   The slowdown began right at the time of the election so it may have something to do with the uncertain fate of Dodd-Frank legislation under Trump.  We do not expect it to be long-lasting.  With total loans having risen 3.6% in the past year and nominal GDP growth climbing by 4.1%, the slowdown in lending has not yet slowed the pace of economic activity.  But if the extreme slowdown in recent months were to continue for much longer that could be the case.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC


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