Sunday, 26 of March of 2017

Economics. Explained.  

Housing Starts

March 16, 2017

Housing Starts

Housing starts rose 3.0% in February to 1,288 thousand after having declined 1.9% in January. Because these data are particularly volatile on a month-to-month basis, it is best to look at a 3-month moving average of starts (which is the series shown in blue above).   That 3-month average now stands at 1,288 thousand which is. the fastest pace of construction thus far in the cycle and it should continue to climb slowly.

Both new and existing home sales continue to climb.   Thus, the demand for housing is particularly robust.

New Home Sales

Builders remain enthusiastic in part because they are seeing traffic through the model homes accelerating.

Homebuilder Confidence -- Traffic

Mortgage rates have risen almost 0.75% since the election in early November but at 4.2% they are still quite low by any historical standard.

Interest Rates -- 30 Year Mortgage

At the same time employment gains are about 170 thousand per month which is boosting income.  As a result, real disposable income (what is left after inflation and taxes) is growing at a 2.0% pace.

Disposable Income -- Real

As a result housing remains affordable for the median-price home buyer.  Mortgage rates may have risen, but income has been rising at almost as quickly, hence affordability has not dropped much.  At 162.8 the index indicates that a median-income buyer has 2.8% more income than is necessary to purchase a median-priced house.

Housing Affordability

The problem in housing is not a lack of demand.  Rather it is a constraint on the production side.  Builders have had difficulty finding an adequate supply of skilled labor although construction industry jobs have picked up in recent months.

Payroll Employment -- Construction

As one might expect there is a tight correlation between home builder confidence and the starts data which probably makes a great deal of sense.   Judging by the homebuilder confidence data we should expect starts to eventually climb to 1.5 million or so from about 1.3 million currently.  However,  as noted above, many home builders  report an inability to get the skilled workers they require.   Overcoming the labor shortage on a long-term basis will be challenging.  Employment in the construction industry will continue to climb, but slowly, which will limit the speed with which starts rise in the months ahead.

Homebuilder Confidence

The other thing worth noting is that about 1.3 million new households are being formed every year.  Those families all need a place to live, either a single-family home or an apartment.  Thus, we need to see housing starts rise by 1.3 million just to keep pace with growth in households.  However, the fact that housing starts were substantially below the growth in households for so long, there is pent-up demand.  We expect starts to reach 1.4 million by the end of 2017 and 1.5 million in 2018.

Housing Starts Projected

Building permits fell 6.2% in February to 1,213 thousand after having jumped 5.3% in January.  The February drop was entirely in multi-family permits which is very volatile on a month-to-basis.  It will almost certainly rebound next month.  Because  permits are another volatile  indicator it is best to look at a 3-month average (which is shown below).  That 3-month moving average now stands at 1,245 thousand which continues to point towards slow but steady improvement in housing.   The reason people look at permits is because a builder must first attain a permit before beginning construction.  Thus, it is a leading indicator of what is likely to happen to starts several months down the road.  If permits are currently at 1,245 thousand, housing starts will gradually approach the 1.4 million mark.

Building Permits

Stephen Slifer

Charleston, SC

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