Wednesday, 20 of June of 2018

Economics. Explained.  

Gross Domestic Purchases Deflator

June 10, 2018

There are many different deflators that are available.  This one is for gross domestic purchases which measures prices paid by U.S. residents.  It is the one measure of inflation that the Commerce Department talks about when it releases the GDP report.   It is our broadest measure of inflation and contains more than 5,000 goods and services.

The gross domestic purchases deflator rose 2.7% in the first quarter after having climbed by 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Over the past year this index has risen 1.9%.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components this index rose 2.7% in the first quarter after having risen 2.0% in the fourth quarter.

Remember that these deflators are weighted measures of inflation.  That means that when a builder switches from using copper pipe to PVC to save money, it registers as a price decline in these particular inflation measures.  Or when a consumer switches from buying butter to less expensive margarine the result is the same.  Thus, the deflator represents a combination of price changes and changes in consumer and business behavior.

The CPI, however, is a fixed basket of goods and services.  So what it shows are price changes only which, to us, is what inflation is all about.   We believe that the inflation rate is headed higher.  With the unemployment rate at 3.8% the economy is at full employment which should boost wages and, at last, that seems to be happening.  Both manufacturers and non-manufacturing firms are reporting sharply higher prices for their raw materials so commodity prices are also on the rise.  A very short supply of available rental properties is boosting rents.  Hence we expect  the core CPI to climb from 1.8% last year to 2.3% in 2018.  The one thing that is keeping the inflation rate in check is technology.  People are able to search the internet and find the lowest price available from Amazon or some other on-line website.  Thus, sellers of goods have absolutely no pricing power.  Prices of goods have fallen 0.3% in the past year while prices for services have risen 3.0%.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC


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