Sunday, 18 of February of 2018

Economics. Explained.  

Gross Domestic Purchases Deflator

January 26, 2018

There are many different deflators that are available.  This one is for gross domestic purchases which measures prices paid by U.S. residents.  It is the one measure of inflation that the Commerce Department talks about when it releases the GDP report.   It is our broadest measure of inflation and contains more than 5,000 goods and services.

The gross domestic purchases deflator rose 2.5% in the fourth quarter after having climbed 1.7% in the third quarter. Over the past year this index has risen 1.9%.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components this index rose 1.9% in the fourth quarter after having risen 1.7% in the third quarter and 1.3% in the second quarter.

Remember that these deflators are weighted measures of inflation.  That means that when a builder switches from using copper pipe to PVC to save money, it registers as a price decline in these particular inflation measures.  Or when a consumer switches from buying butter to less expensive margarine the result is the same.  Thus, the deflator represents a combination of price changes and changes in consumer and business behavior.

The CPI, however, is a fixed basket of goods and services.  So what it shows are price changes only which, to us, is what inflation is all about.   We believe that the inflation rate is headed higher.  With the unemployment rate at 4.1% the economy is at full employment which should boost wages and, at last, that seems to be happening.  Both manufacturers and non-manufacturing firms are reporting sharply higher prices for their raw materials so commodity prices are also on the rise.  A very short supply of available rental properties is boosting rents.  Hence we expect  the core CPI to climb from 1.8% last year to 2.2% in 2018.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC


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