Homebuilder Confidence
February 17, 2026 Homebuilder confidenced fell 1 point in February to 36 after having declined 2 points in January. Builders are still worried about the imposition of tariffs, high mortgage rates. The breakeven point for this series is 50 so at 36 it is clear...
Jobs Returning, GDP Humming
February 13, 2026 Employment climbed by 130 thousand in January but that includes a loss of 42 thousand government workers. Private sector employment jumped by 172 thousand. Payroll employment had been expected to climb by 30 thousand. At the same time the...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
February 13, 2026 The economy expanded at a 4.3% GDP growth in the third quarter and we expect 3.8% growth rate in both the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. Given the GDP forecast above, in 2026 we expect the unemployment rate to...
Existing Home Sales
February 13, 2026 . Existing home salessank 8.4% in January to 3,910 thousand after having jumped 4.4% in December That was a surprising decline in January and may have been weather-related. Our expectation is that a steady increase in jobs will boost income,...
Consumer Price Index
February 13, 2026 The CPI rose 0.2% in January after gaining 0.3% in December. The year-over-year increase is 2.4%. We expect the overall CPI to increase 2.2% in 2026. Food prices rose 0.2% in January after having climbed 0.6% in December.. In the past year food...
Payroll Employment
February 11, 2026 . Payroll employment climbed by 130 thousand in January following an increase of 48 thousand in December. In the past three months payroll employment has risen on average by 73 thousand per mont. Employment should continue to rise slowly in...
Private Employment
February 11, 2026 . Privatge sector employment climbed by 130 thousand in January following an increase of 64 thousand in December. In the past three months private employment has risen on average by 103 thousand per month. Employment should continue to rise...
Unemployment Rate
February 11, 2026 OK The unemployment rate fell 0.1% in January to 4.3% after having declined 0.1% in December.. The labor force climbed by 387 thousand in January while employment rose 528 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed workers declined by 141...
Nonfarm Workweek
Februarty 11, 2026 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment climbed by 130 thousand in January. The nonfarm workweek rose 0.1 hour in...
Average Hourly Earnings
February 11 2026 Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in January to $37.17 after having risen 0.1% in Decvember, Earnings growth in the past year has been 3.7%. While nominal earnings have risen 3.7% in the past year, inflation has risen fairly quickly and real or...
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