It is All About Oil
March 13, 2026 What started out as a relatively short-lived campaign to decapitate Iran’s leadership, dominate the sky, and eliminate Iran’s Navy, it has turned into something that is likely to be a longer-lasting operation. Iran has successfully closed the Strait...
GDP
March 13, 2026 The second estimate of fourth quarter GDP rose 0.7% which compares to the preliinary estimate of 1.4% and 4.4% growth in the third quarter. Much of the shortfall in fourth quarter growth was attributable to the government shutdown which appears to...
Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures — Monthly
March 13, 2026 Personal income rose 0.3% in January after climbing 0.4% in December . In the past year personal income has climbed 4.0%. Slower jobs growth has caused a much slower rate of growth in income since the beginning of last year. The growth in income...
Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator
March 13, 2026 There are many different measures of inflation, but the one that the Federal Reserve considers to be most important is the personal consumption expenditures deflator, in particular the PCE deflator excluding the volatile food and energy components....
Durable Goods Orders
March 13, 2026 Durable goods orders were unchanged in January after having declined 0.9% in December. Durable goods orders have risen 10.3% in the past year. Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector -- airplanes, cars, and...
Housing Starts
March 12, 2026 Housing starts jumped 7.2% in January to 1,487 thousand after having climbed 4.8% in December and 4.1% in November. This is the hird consecutive sizeable increase in starts. The housing market seems to be showing some signs of turning upwards....
Trade Deficit
March 12, 2026 The trade deficit for January narrowed by $18.4 billiion in January to $54.5 billion afteer having widened by $16.9 billion in December. It has been particularly volatile in recent months with month changes exceeding $10.0 billion in 12 of the last...
Initial Unemployment Claims
March 12, 2026 Initial unemployment claims fell 1 thousand to 213 thousand in the week ending March 7 after having risen 1 thousand in the previous week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits declined 21 thousand in the week ending February 28 to...
Consumer Price Index
March 11, 2026 The CPI rose 0.3% in February after having risen 0.2% in January. The year-over-year increase is 2.4%. We expect the overall CPI to increase 2.4% in 2026. Food prices rose 0.4% in February after climbing 0.2% in January. In the past year food...
Existing Home Sales
March 10, 2026 . Existing home sales rose 1.7% in February to 4,090 thousand after sinking 5.9% in January. Our expectation is that slow but steady increase in jobs will boost income, mortgage rates will decline slowly in the months ahead, and prices should also...
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